防空地监哨情报融合研究*

在得到防空地监哨直接观测信息的基础上,对目标可能航向进行二次外推,并利用效用函数综合评估法对目标相关性进行检验,完成对目标信息的融合,解决了地监哨情报数据的关联和航迹外推问题。仿真及试验结果表明该方法用于防空地监哨情报融合是可行的,其结果分析的应用能指导地监哨训练和战时地监哨的配置。     

被动免疫算法在模拟电路故障诊断中的应用研究

基于生物免疫系统的信息处理机理,介绍了被动免疫算法的实现过程,并将其应用到某装备电路板的故障诊断之中。该算法具有边检测边学习的动态调整功能,仿真和实验实例表明,该算法适合于电路板的故障诊断,有较高的故障诊断率。     

区域防空导弹反导火力分配研究

分析了传统防空导弹火力分配模型的不足,考虑到编队内各舰艇近程防空作战能力的不同,结合装备性能特点,建立了基于机会约束规划的区域防空导弹火力分配优化模型。给出了基于遗传算法和BP神经网络的混合智能算法,该算法在精度和速度上均能满足防空作战的要求。     

基于改进人工免疫算法的火力分配

随着现代武器杀伤力的极大提高,任何来袭目标的突防都可能造成极大的破坏,这对传统的火力分配提出了挑战。提出一种新的火力集中原则,在满足对来袭目标一定杀伤的前提下,适当转移火力,实现火力总的集中,据此建立了火力分配优化模型。通过改进人工免疫算法的抗体群,提高模型的求解速度,缩短方案的寻优时间。通过实例进行仿真,结果表明,基于改进人工免疫算法能较快速实现火力分配,算法具有一定的可行性。     

CIVIL SOCIETY AND VIOLENCE—HOW TO MANAGE IN THE TOWNSHIPS WITHOUT THE ARMY

This article discusses the validity of national security threats in Botswana and whether they justified the creation of the Directorate of Intelligence and Security Services (DISS), which has been controversial since its formation. Since its inception in 2008, the DISS has been accused of many human rights violations and politicisation. Without fully deliberating on the basis for its creation, some discourses have focused on the politicised operations without relation to what the DISS is supposed to be doing. The author works under the assumption that debates should be shaped by whether it was necessary to create the DISS, and, if so, how we can shape and steer debates on its oversight, management, reform and operations. This article argues that despite the politicisation of the DISS, Botswana's national security threats are both real and imagined; and that domestic threats to national security have moved from the conceptual ‘imagined’ category to the ‘real’. However, that in itself did not warrant the design and mandate of the DISS, and the article argues that it was external threats that really warranted the creation of a civilian intelligence agency. The article concludes that Botswana faces a plethora of external security threats – traditional and non-traditional – that warranted the creation and continuance of the DISS.     

The Scandinavian Triangle: Danish-Norwegian-Swedish military intelligence cooperation and Swedish security policy during the first part of the Cold War

This article deals with Scandinavian intelligence cooperation and its significance for Swedish security policy during the first part of the Cold War. First, the development of the cooperation is described. Second, it is related to a wider context. Third, intelligence in Swedish security policy-making is discussed. Common security interests caused the cooperation. For Sweden, it represented an important part of the wider contacts with the West. Although military intelligence was important for Swedish security policy-making in some respects (e.g. military readiness), it did not have a significant influence in others (e.g. the politicians' threat perceptions). One important reason is the Swedish tradition of weak connections between the political and military leadership.     

大型地下工程智能化系统总体技术方案研究

以复杂大系统通用集成模型及其开发策略为理论基础,研究了大型地下工程智能化系统分层递阶、多级分区的框架结构方案及其特征,在此方案指导下,提出了4层递阶式广义智能化体系结构,构建了地下工程智能化系统的硬件模型、软件模型、通信模型、数据资源组织模型等,从而给出了大型地下工程智能化系统的总体技术方案,阐述了系统集成的实现方法,为促进防护工程智能化、信息化建设提供了技术参考。     

二十世纪美国反恐情报应用模式初探

美国作为较早受到恐怖主义威胁的西方发达国家，自20世纪70年代逐渐发展起了一套完善的执法体系，并积累了成熟的执法经验，特别是信息化时代背景下，美国执法部门的反恐斗争渗透着强烈而鲜明的信息情报色彩，是“情报导侦”理念和模式的现实体现，为我国执法与行动部门提供了一定的经验。其中的“威胁评估”综合情报分析模式是美国反恐情报工作的典型代表，对于预防恐怖主义犯罪起着特殊的作用。     

How long until midnight? Intelligence-policy relations and the United States response to the Israeli nuclear program, 1959–1985

Why did the United States fail to stop Israeli acquisition of nuclear weapons? Existing research argues that patrons such as the U.S. should have an easy time halting proliferation by militarily and economically vulnerable clients. Nevertheless, Israel acquired nuclear weapons with relatively little American opposition. Utilizing extensive primary source research, we argue that problematic intelligence-policy relations hindered U.S. efforts to arrest Israeli proliferation as (1) policymakers often gave mixed guidance to the intelligence community, resulting in (2) limited information on Israeli efforts that reinforced policy ambiguity. The results carry implications for understanding the dynamics of nuclear proliferation and intelligence-policy relations.     

基于混合策略的文图自动转换方法研究

针对文图自动转换问题,借鉴事件模型的思想,结合自然语言理解和本体技术,提出了基于混合策略的文图自动转换方法。通过构建领域本体等知识库,在其支持下对文书进行预处理,以及词法、语法、语义和语用分析,最终实现了文图的自动转换。为验证方法的可行性,设计并实现了文图自动转换原型系统,测试表明,能有效提高文图自动转换的效率和准确性,具有一定的参考价值。